Changes in China's car ownership

According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, at the end of 1949, the country had only 50,000 civilian vehicles. At the end of 1978, the number of civilian cars in the country reached 1,358,400, including 259,900 passenger cars and 1,017,700 trucks, which were 26 times, 15 times, and 30 times that of 1949 respectively.

By the end of 2008, the number of civilian vehicles nationwide had reached 5,059,100. Among them, there were 38.8382 million passenger cars and 112.607 million laden cars, which were 38 times, 148 times and 11 times higher than those in 1978 respectively.

Since the late 1990s and the 21st century, China's passenger car industry has developed rapidly. In 2008, the number of passenger cars in the country reached 24.38 million, and private cars reached 19.47 million, equivalent to 1.5 cars per 100 people.

As of the end of 2009, China’s car ownership has reached 62 million.

If we include three-wheeled vehicles, low-speed trucks, and agricultural vehicles, as of the end of 2009, China's civil vehicle ownership has reached 76.19 million, an increase of 17.8% over the end of the previous year. The private car ownership amounted to 52.18 million, an increase of 25.0%.

The number of civilian cars was 31.36 million, an increase of 28.6%, of which private cars were 26.05 million, an increase of 33.8%.

Comparison of China's Car Ownership with Other Countries

As of the end of 2008, the world's car ownership (see Figure 3), China's car ownership has exceeded Germany, Italy, France, Britain, Russia, South Korea and many other countries, but still less than Japan and the United States.

Figure 3: Car ownership in countries around the world (as of the end of 2008)

Source: China National Bureau of Statistics, Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, German Automobile Industry Association, Ward's Auto, ANFIA, etc.

US Future Car Population Forecast

As of the end of 2008, the vehicle ownership in the United States was 250 million vehicles. However, in 2009, the country’s car ownership volume declined for the first time since statistics began in 1960. In 2009, under the influence of the shrinking automobile market and rising oil prices, the sales volume of new US vehicles was only about 10 million, which was stimulated by the government’s implementation of the “Cash-for-Clunkers” policy. In the year, the United States scrapped about 14 million cars. As of the end of 2009, the United States’ car ownership has dropped from 250 million to 246 million.

For the decline in vehicle ownership in the United States, the Earth Policy Institute stated that it cannot be considered as a temporary phenomenon caused by the economic recession. The US vehicle ownership has reached a certain degree of saturation, and it is expected that by the year 2020, the United States will have car ownership. The amount will be further reduced by 25 million vehicles.

China's future car ownership planning and forecast

Zhou Haitao, chief engineer of the Ministry of Transport, stated in September 2010 that the “Modern Transport Industry Support Technology Symposium” held in Shanghai on the 20th stated that the current domestic automobile ownership has exceeded 70 million vehicles.

According to the "China's 2010 Clean Energy Technology in Development" report released by the Ministry of Science and Technology, as of the end of 2009, the country has demonstrated and promoted nearly 5,000 new energy vehicles. By 2011, 150,000 vehicles and key components will be produced. In 2015, the number of new energy vehicles in China will grow to over 1 million vehicles. In 2020, the new energy vehicle market will reach 10 million units.

Wang Fuchang, deputy director of the Department of Equipment Industry of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, spoke at the China Automotive Industry Development International Forum on September 5, 2010, stating that by 2020, China’s vehicle ownership will exceed 200 million vehicles.