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The International Oil Price Continues to Remain Unabated: The international oil price exceeded US$120/barrel for the first time, mainly due to the tight security situation of the major oil-producing countries of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Iraq, Iran, and Nigeria. As a result, the dollar exchange rate against the Euro fell.
According to Dan Weiguo, director of the Institute of Economics and Technology of the China National Petroleum Corporation’s Institute of Economics and Technology, the rising demand for oil in emerging market economies, the limited production of resource-producing countries, the depreciation of the US dollar, and the influx of speculative funds into commodity markets have been international oil prices since the second half of last year. The main reason for accelerating climbing.
Wang Jian, secretary-general of the China Macroeconomics Committee of the National Development and Reform Commission, pointed out that with the deepening of the subprime mortgage crisis, it is expected that the weak dollar policy will not change in the short term. Commodities will continue to be the main target of fund speculation and international oil prices will continue to operate at high levels. It is difficult to see a significant drop in the year.
China's economy is under pressure from high oil prices It is an indisputable fact that China’s economy is increasingly under pressure from the high international oil prices. However, the more common view is that rising oil prices will not affect the steady growth of China's economy as a whole.
Wang Jian pointed out that as a developing country, China’s industrial structure lags behind and it relies more on energy-intensive industries to promote economic growth. The process of urbanization is accelerating and oil consumption is in an increasing range. This means that the rise in international oil prices will make China’s economy more resilient. Big pressure.
The most direct impact of high oil prices on China’s economy is the increase in import payments. According to statistics of the General Administration of Customs, China's net import of crude oil was 44.95 million tons in the first quarter of this year, an increase of 14.9% year-on-year; net imports of refined oil reached 5.47 million tons, an increase of 31.8% over the same period last year. The trade deficit caused by imported crude oil and refined oil totaled nearly 33.1 billion U.S. dollars.
Wang Jian pointed out that because oil is a basic energy product, the continued rise in international oil prices will push China's industrial product ex-factory price (PPI) higher and increase inflationary pressure.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the ex-factory price of crude oil in March rose by 37.9% year-on-year. Among the major processed petroleum products, the ex-factory prices of gasoline, diesel and kerosene rose by 9.9%, 10.9% and 12.1% respectively. The price of butadiene rubber rose by 20.7%. From January to March, China's PPI rose by 6.9% year-on-year, and purchase prices for raw materials, fuel, and power rose by 9.8%.
In order to reduce inflationary pressure, China's refined oil retail prices have not been adjusted since November last year. However, with the further inversion of domestic crude oil prices and refined oil prices, the loss of refining companies has increased, resulting in the suspension or semi-discontinuation of some refineries, especially local refineries, which has seriously affected the market supply of refined oil in China. Since the end of last year, some regions in China have experienced tight oil sources and limited supply restrictions.
In the first quarter, China’s petrochemical industry experienced its first decline in profits since 2001. China National Petroleum Corporation and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation lost 12.6% and 65.78% of their net profits in the first quarter due to refining losses.
Changing the economic development model is fundamental The continuous rise in international oil prices has not changed the trend of China's oil consumption growth. According to statistics from the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, the apparent consumption of refined oil products (the sum of output and net imports) in the first quarter of this year increased by 16.5% year-on-year, a record increase. The apparent consumption of crude oil increased by 8% year-on-year, also 2.5 percentage points faster than the same period of last year.
Zhou Dadi, a researcher at the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, pointed out that as a major oil-consuming country, China must accelerate economic restructuring, implement relevant measures for energy conservation and emission reduction, and accelerate the establishment of energy-saving economic structures to cope with high oil prices.
Wang Jian believes that in the long run, China should still establish prices and fiscal and taxation mechanisms that are conducive to industrial restructuring, so that high oil price signals can be transmitted to the market as soon as possible, and the transformation of domestic energy consumption structure and the optimization of industrial structure can be promoted.
Continuing high oil prices did not affect the steady trend of China's economy
After the price of international crude oil futures broke 100 years earlier, on the 5th, it hit another record high of US$120.36 per barrel. As a major oil importer with foreign oil dependence of 50%, what impact will high oil prices have on China's economic operation? The author interviewed relevant experts and scholars on this issue.